In “Thinking in bets” Annie Duke asks to imagine your best and your worst decision. Instead of a decision, we tend to identify an outcome. While decision-making process is fully under our control, the outcome is always influenced by luck, i.e. unknown.
Let’s say changing the job was your best decision. You weighed a number of pros and cons to make this decision, and now you're happy with your new post. But there is always the portion of organizational culture you could experience only after you have arrived. This time you were lucky, everything worked out, but what if things turned out nasty? Toxic culture, no fit? Is it a bad decision or a bad outcome? Should you change the way you decided next time?
It's probably a good idea to review the process, but no matter what you do, there will always be information missing. Instead, try to think in bets: work out multiple outcomes with probabilities based on how much information you think you don't know.
I.e with 80% probability company X is a good choice, because 20% of information I think I don’t have/control. Imagine as many possible scenarios for how the future might unfold and guess a probability for each one. Then make your choice, and don’t rush to change or drop the process because you had bad luck. No scenario has 100% confidence, there is always at least 0,01% uncertainity.
It's probably a good idea to review the process, but no matter what you do, there will always be information missing. Instead, try to think in bets: work out multiple outcomes with probabilities based on how much information you think you don't know.
I.e with 80% probability company X is a good choice, because 20% of information I think I don’t have/control. Imagine as many possible scenarios for how the future might unfold and guess a probability for each one. Then make your choice, and don’t rush to change or drop the process because you had bad luck. No scenario has 100% confidence, there is always at least 0,01% uncertainity.